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HOW BEST TO USE TOWERFORM RATINGS
Document (1) here
Document (2) here
Document (3) here
Document (5) here
TOWERFORM
DOCUMENT PART 4
THE FINALISED BETS
Even when you have isolated the Main Bet races and checked the four steps, you can still be left without any main bets. When this happens you can usually finalise a bet using General Betting - but not always. It is these times that we decide to leave betting for that day and go do the………… erm…… well………. when we go to the pub for the afternoon.
However, no matter how we go about betting, everybody has their own ideas and methods. There are ways to add positively to your form reading to give you a better chance of creating a profitable approach. Below are two approaches which we think are very important.
HORSES MAINTAINING FORM
With so much racing, there will be days when there is racing for racing's sake: low grade, slow horses being in the majority. These are the days you can sometimes wonder if form has any real value. But of course form has value. And, despite all contrary (and unfathomable) beliefs, it is a fact that the lower the class the more unlikely it is that a horse can maintain its absolute best form for a significant period. Like everything else in life, there are exceptions to the rule, but in the main the statement is true. Obviously, many horses within and above the Class 4 level are also inconsistent. But we know from long experience that when a higher grade horse hits form, it generally continues in form for many more races than a lower grade horse.
There are many estimates about how long a horse can maintain its best form. Taking into account the various things that a horse has to endure (being ill, injured, over-raced, under galloped, ad infinitum) we are of the belief that most but not all horses have an eight to ten week period when they maintain their best form. To check this, just go to the Racing Post website and click on the form of all horses aged 4-Y-O and over. You'll see many examples of a horse having its best placings over a two month period. This is one of many reasons why we incorporate the time of year into the handicaps we compile. If a horse appears out of form, you can bet money that when its favoured eight week period approaches, it will run right up to its best - without warning if you haven't checked its past form. But even though we incorporate the time of year into a horse's rating, it will always be worth your while to double check.
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TRAINERS / JOCKEYS
It would seem easy to spot a trainer in form - though being as flippant as some when a trainer has two winners in three days is not the professional way to approach the subject. Just because a trainer has two winners in three days doesn't necessarily mean they are in form. Both winners could have been long odds on favourites. Neither does it mean a trainer is out of form just because they haven't had a winner for a fortnight. The horses they have run may have all been rank outsiders, or their fancied horses could have been finishing close up seconds and thirds. If you base your in-form judgement on the fact that a trainer has had "x" amount of winners in "n" amount of days, then you are slightly misreading the facts. The best way to gauge if a trainer is in sufficient form is to look at the whole period covered in the trainer's current and overall form section on the Racing Post website. By way of example - and a random one - we have looked at the first race at Yarmouth on Monday July 31 2006. There are five trainers. Listed below are our views on those trainers and their jockeys with regard to current and overall form on the Racing Post website's trainerform pop up windows.
W J KNIGHT: Marmaida
9 runners
No wins
2 places and a 40/1 4th
7 started at greater than 10/1, one being placed at 18/1
2 started at less than 10/1 and only one was fancied (Ede's Dot Com which placed at 7/2)
In Form? Out of Form?
Hard to figure with so few runners. But the fancied runner was deemed by many to be too high in the weights, yet ran well. The trainer is new but has had a couple of 2-Y-O runners at Yarmouth this season with one winning (this horse) producing a 50% win record. With reference to his only fancied runner being placed and to a long priced outsider being placed, we would err on the side of In Form with limited ammunition. So the trainer's current form would not put us off betting this horse which is 2nd top of our ratings. The jockey on board is the stable's main rider but he has a low percentage of wins in this race type for the trainer. However, he has an excellent record at the course (33% win ratio 3 from 9 - one of which was on this horse over course and distance).
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D M SIMCOCK: Cosmopolitan Lady
9 runners
One win (long odds on)
Four places all at less than 10/1
Of the horses finishing out of the places, all but one were greater than 10/1.
Most definitely in form, but caution because he has only one win in 14 visits to the course (0-5 in this type of race), and the jockey on board hasn't won a 2-Y-O race at this course in 28 attempts plus he's had only 3 wins in his last 50 rides (one of them a 2-Y-O).
KR BURKE: Frontline Focus
31 runs
3 wins (one of which was huge odds on)
14 places (only two of which were greater than 10/1; all the others were fancied to some degree).
The trainer seems in average form to good form (50% win and place). The jockey has a good 28% record on the trainer's 2-Y-Os. But confidence slightly tempered by his trainer's low percentage in this type of race at the course and the fact the jockey hasn't won at the course for at least 5 years (15 rides)
M QUINN: Caj
6 runs
No wins
One place (in moderately paced five runner maiden)
One fancied horse well beaten.
Out of form even with a small sample. He has an average record at the course and the rider is having his first ride for him in at least the past five years and also has a very low percentage of winning rides at the course.
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J G M O'SHEA: Hester Brook
6 flat runs
Two wins (Ten and 15 days ago) both progressive types.
No places
This is a very confusing record. On the one hand his two sprinters are in top form and progressing, on the other his flat record is hard to get a grip on since the unplaced horses were inconsistent types in low grade racing (one of his winners was also in a low grade). He appears to have a good record in this race type at this course (33% win ratio) but his last win here was in 2004 and this is his first runner at the course this season. His jockey has a poor course record for this type of race (0 from 5) and he hasn't ridden a 2-Y-O winner for the trainer in just four rides. Worse, the jockey has a poor win ratio on all 2-Y-Os (6% in the last five years and no wins from 14 this season).
So that is how we read stats for trainers and jockeys - though we normally only assess the top three TowerForm handicap marks.
CONCLUSION
After all that we believe that there are too few runners for us to be confident. Even though the race is at the minimum trip, Marmaida would be the call were it not for the relatively unknown quality of Frontline Focus's beating of Ishi Diva (who subsequently ran second in Newbury's Super Sprint the other Saturday). It is always dangerous to take form literally, but Marmaida's good 7th in the Empress Stakes was roughly the equal in form terms.
Even though we have reached no firm conclusions about this race, it does at the minimum show you a part of how we assess trainer form allied to jockey form and relationship. It cannot be too firmly stated that you need to have at least part of the above in your race assessment to ensure you have the best possible chance of winning in the long run. Haphazard acceptance of form without delving deeper is the main flaw in many punter's approach - and one of many reasons why up to 90% of all punters lose. Our approach is anything but perfect, but it pays off more times than it doesn't. The only difference between how we interpret the facts and how you interpret them is personal experience and the value you or we put on certain aspects. But if you take the above approach you will soon find which aspect becomes more important than another in your estimation. And it is your estimation only that counts.
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More Next week………
Document 1 here
Document 2 here
Document 3 here
Document 5 here
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