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HOW BEST TO USE TOWERFORM RATINGS
Document (1) here
Document (2) here
Document (4) here
Document (5) here
TOWERFORM
DOCUMENT PART 3
MAIN BET RACES AND GENERAL BETTING
To bet seriously for profit, you need to bet regularly but sensibly. There is no profit to be made by just dipping in every other day, so to speak. Neither is it sensible to bet every day or on most every race that takes your fancy - especially if multiple betting is your thing. And though betting several races daily is the easiest thing to do and picking winners even easier; making a profit is harder.
By way of example pick up your morning newspaper tomorrow, get a pen, turn to the racing pages then, without thinking about form and using only your instinct, spend a maximum two seconds to mark what you think will win each race of the day. When the results are in we will be very surprised if you haven't picked at the minimum 20% to 25% winners. And that is without recourse to the form book.
If you bet this way you would undoubtedly help pay for your bookies next holiday. On the other hand, to begin your betting day this way can help you profit more than you could imagine. Unfortunately, as we said on the website some time ago, once the stalls open, or the gate goes up, or the fence looms on the horizon, Sod's Law takes over and you can begin to think your instinct is something to be kept only to help you cross the road or to avoid the occasional flying object.
The only countermeasure we have against Sod's Law is form reading, remembering all the time to go with first instincts based on information given or known. This is, believe it or not, one of the soundest bits of advice you can get.
So what about form?
Form is particular to each individual. Some are expert, some put too much emphasis on one or other aspects. Some, though very few we hope, see a horse win three lengths on the bit in a seller then back it next time regardless. But whatever your form reading skills, it is always best not to over analyse a race. If you do, you'll end up in all sorts of quandaries and regularly bet the wrong horse. Fortunately, we have done most of the form reading for you while compiling the handicaps. When we compile the handicaps we use a combination of the horse's lifetime and current form but we ignore trainer form, jockey form and draw bias. The only time we look at trainers when compiling the handicaps is as we said earlier: when assessing debutantes and those horses with little form in the book. But in all cases, if conditions are as they should be, one of the top 2 or 3 marks should win any given race (notwithstanding Sod's Law, of course).
It would be both wrong and presumptive of us to teach you how to read form. So we won't do that. You are probably all doing very well with form reading as you are. So the best way to proceed is to run you through the steps we take when finalising our bets.
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FINALISING MAIN BET RACES
Once we have got a list of main bet races using the steps laid out in Document 2, we put all class 5 and Class 6 races at the bottom of the list and we don't look at them again if we get three bets out of the rest of the races. Even when we have only one or two finalised main bets, we are still reticent about seriously betting in these classes. The reason is very simple, the lower the class the more inconsistent the horse. But there will be opportunities in these classes (see below), so we do occasionally bet them.
If, after assessing the top three in the main bet races we have no finalised main bet, we revert to general betting where all races come in to consideration. Remember, we have done almost all the work while compiling the handicaps (overall and recent form, course, going, time of year, speed, distance, class, etc). So there are four things only we consider when assessing races to finalise our bets.
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ASSESSING A RACE
STYLE OF RUNNING: It amazes us, and no doubt a number of you, that few punters know how a horse runs its best races, or even how a race is run. Everyone knows the front runner or the fast finisher. But can everyone differentiate between prominent and close up? As we think you already know (so pre-apologies here) a horse that races prominently lies up with the pace, the one that races close up is usually just off the pace. Front runners and prominent racers are the types of horses you need to find in every race you assess. The reason is obviously that a race lacking habitual front runners or prominent runners is almost certain to be run tactically or at a modest pace. The numbers of times we see people bet horses in these pace-lacking races makes us want to up sticks and become bookies. If the horse you fancy is usually held up for a late run and there are no "pace setters" in the race, don't bet that horse. The odds are it will not win.
DRAW: Unlike many we don't get all worked up about draw bias. There are of course some significant statistics, but you'll find that in all but the most unchangeable (Chester for example), many racecourses work hard to nullify draw bias. Some courses are so troubled by the effect of the draw that they over or under do it. So much so that draw bias can become a non-subject. So unless a significant draw bias suddenly appears (as happened at Royal Ascot recently) we ignore the draw.
TRAINERS: Trainers are creatures of habit like the rest of the animal kingdom. So it is important you know what those habits are. An extreme example needs no further explanation: Sir Mark Prescott. There are lesser, though nonetheless significant examples. Take Dandy Nicholls (not literally). On the approach to Glorious Goodwood, his horses thrive beyond belief. The best time to bet his horses is always the end of July through August (about now, isn't it?). However, generally the best way to use a trainer's habits is to check his record at a particular course in a particular type of race. There probably are publications with breakdowns of race types from 2-Y-O maidens to 4-Y-O handicappers. But for general purposes the statistics on the Racing Post website suffice. But don't be fooled. A high profit at a course means nothing to us. A trainer's £10.00 profit to £1.00 stakes at a course could mean two winners from twenty. So following such a trainer would prove tiresome and cover a long time betting every horse he sends to the course. We are more interested in percentages. Any trainer with a 25% or better return in a race type needs careful consideration if he trains a TowerForm top 3 horse. If that trainer also has good recent form then that's an additional plus. Yet even here, if the horse's style of running doesn't suit the race it is in, confidence will wane.
JOCKEYS: (Applies to very race on the racing calendar) One thing to remember here (and we don't mind saying it) is that the majority of jockeys are no more than average to competent. There are only rare examples of us betting a horse simply because a certain jockey is on board. Unfortunately, the Fallon Factor is no more (UK-wise). We are more interested in a jockey's record with a trainer in a particular type of race, with a jockey's record for a particular owner, or a jockey's record when riding a particular horse. This is one of the most significant aspects we look at when finalising our bets. And it is one aspect which you should always have on your mind. It is very easy to check on the Racing Post website, so you don't need to buy any books on the matter.
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If , after going through the above process, we don't have a main bet race to bet, we go through the process again for the whole of the day's racing until we get at least 3 bets. We also go through race types in sequence:
Handicaps (not Nurseries or NH Novices see below)
Group, Listed and Conditions races (Grade, Listed and Conditions Hurdles and Chases NH)
3-Y-O and over non-maiden non-handicaps (4-Y-O and over novice hurdles and novice chases NH)
3-Y-O and over maidens (maiden hurdles, maiden chases and beginners chases NH)
2-Y-O races (no Juvenile Hurdlers NH until November)
Nursery handicaps (novice handicaps NH)
Non-Hunter Chase Amateur races
NEVER in any circumstance Banded racing - we'd rather pull our own teeth!.
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So that is it! We have done all the form reading when compiling the handicaps. So we don't over complicate or re-do what we've done before. That would be pointless. Take the ratings as they are. Use your own approach (probably as good as anyone else's), or use the above or variations of it. You can obviously bet more than three races a day. But as we said at the start of this document, don't over do it. Losing runs are the nature of the beast. The more races you bet the longer the losing run and the higher your loss. It is important to strike a healthy balance. There is simply too much racing to make it pay by betting dozens of races a day. We suppose there are some who can profit this way, but they are a rare breed - and regular winners are rare enough.
Remember our motto, which you see every time you visit the site: KEEP IT SIMPLE. Virtually all the form work has been done for you. Your job is simply to relate the ratings to your own preferences. We are sure that by incorporating some or all that we have written in these three documents, you can begin creating a profitable betting approach.
Next document……… Maintenance of a horse's form & Trainer Jockey Form
Document 1 here
Document 2 here
Document 4 here
Document 5 here
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