TOWERFORM DOCUMENT PART 2

WHICH RACES TO BET?

Let’s just start by offering a few BHB facts about racing in the UK in 2006.

• There are over 14,000 horses in training, and over 90,000 runners in a year
• In 2006, 1,391 fixtures have been programmed, providing over 9,000 races
• Of these fixtures, 139 will take place on 48 Sunday dates, and 229 will take place on 120 different evenings [over approximately 350 racing days].

Added to these facts here are some generalisations.

• Around 60% to 70% of horses in training in any given year do not win a race   (9,800), leaving around 4,200 horses in training winning all 9,000 races -which is very roughly two wins per horse per season.
• On average, and though upward and downward variations occur during some short periods, since 1993 the top two marks (including joints) of TowerForm Ratings have pointed to approximately 50% winners (4,500 winners projected for 2006); the top 3 marks have pointed to around 70% winners (6,300 winners projected for 2006); the top 6 listed horses to about 80% winners (7,200 winners projected for 2006).

We will wager that even a pin sticker would get 7,200 winners from 6 choices in every race, but it is clear that to home in on the winners you need look only at the top 3 rated marks in our handicap lists to give yourself the best chance of betting winners.

But beyond those generalisations, and because there is so much racing currently, it is imperative that you reduce the number of races you want to bet in. Many people specialise in race types and thus have a good percentage of winners with the least amount of form study. But what are the best ways to specialise with TowerForm’s handicap listings?

First of all, while we would never tell anyone how they should bet, we can offer advice based on our own betting. We will leave general betting using the ratings until later but below is the first part of our process to find at least 3 main bets a day. You may not agree but these have served us well for decades (excepting the recent banded fare).

First the races we never use to find our main bets:

1. Lady Riders races (weak riding styles)
2. Amateur races (as above)
3. Apprentice (Flat) Conditional (NH) races (too many mistakes made by learners – absolutely not a criticism of the riders, but they are learning their trade and many learn slowly)
4. Fun races (Shergar Cup, jockey challenges, etc)
5. Banded Racing (incredible inconsistency of virtually every runner)

Also, we further reduce the races we bet on seriously with the following

1)      Strike out all races with more than 14 declared runners. (fewer than 14 runners means less likelihood of bad luck in running. Any more than 14 and the problems of bad luck in running increase exponentially)

2)      Strike out all races with 7 or less declared runners (the likeliest races to get a false pace)

3)      Strike out all races where at least one third of runners are debutantes (pretty obvious, we would think)

4)      Strike out all All Weather races (form is not to be trusted in the majority of races but see 1 in the next section below).

5)      Strike out all Flat races further than 8.5f (less, chance of a false pace. Obviously there are exceptions which we will write about later).

6)      Strike out all National Hunt races further than 20.5f  (not surprisingly, races run further are invariably run at a slow pace and thus not absolutely trustworthy form-wise – especially on soft or worse going)

7)      Strike out all  Nursery Handicaps (Flat), Novice Handicaps (NH) (tricky even for the official handicapper)

8)      Strike out all Selling Races (generally very poor horses in these races for a reason….)

9)      Strike out all NH races on forecast Good to Firm or faster going (we really need to be as certain as possible to include such races – though that doesn’t mean we have a faultless record when including these races).

10)  Strike out all Hunter Chases (Many exceptional pointers cannot jump park fences added to which is the weak riding styles of most riders of these races)

11)  Strike out all National Hunt Flat races (far too many run simply for the experience, not for the win).

12)  Strike out all All Brighton Races (even some course winners run as if hating this track and exceptionally few jockeys know how to ride it

13)  Strike out all Southwell races (at the finish of virtually every race run the runners are spread out like blown washing on Blackpool beach)

14)  Strike out all Ripon Races (as Brighton)

15)  Strike out all races on York’s 7 furlong course (the rush for positions from awkwardly high draws leads to any number of unusual results – in our experience, anyway).

16)  And one we are sure many will baulk at……. Strike out all Festival meetings such as Royal Ascot, Cheltenham, etc.

This may look a long list, but with regular use it becomes second nature to apply. If we have a minimum of 3 races selected after all the above, we look at no other races but those. Normally, we don’t bet the races below, but we don’t totally exclude them either (opportunities are available in these races). However, we only occasionally use them in serious betting when we have not reached a 3 bet minimum using the above steps.

1. Look more closely at All Weather races that comply with both of the sections above.
2. Look more closely at Selling races.
3. Look more closely NH races on forecast Good to Firm or faster going
4. Look more closely at Hunter Chases
5. Look more closely at National Hunt Flat races
6. Look more closely at all Brighton Races
7. Look more closely at all Southwell races
8. Look more closely at all Ripon Races

So, if you have Sundays Rating sheet to hand (July 16 2006), below is how we incorporated the above.

a)      Strike out the whole Haydock card (themed football racing)

b)      Strike out Stratford’s 2-00, 2-30, 4-05, 4-40, 5-10.

c)      Strike out Perth’s 3-10, 4-15, 4-50, 5-20

We were left with four races:

Stratford 3-00 (won by a lowly rated horse).

Stratford 3-30 (won by the top rated Maidstone Monument – it’s worth remembering for the future that Maidstone Monument almost always hits a flat spot, looks well beaten, then runs on).

Perth 2-10 (won by the top rated Ballyhurry)

Perth 2-40 (won by the top rated Westmeath Flyer)

Perth 3-40 (won by the odds on top rated Il Penseroso)

Though we had a good day you can be justified in believing we are after-timing. But if you look at other days with the above in mind, you’ll see that though not every day pans out as good as we got Sunday, there are far more good days than bad.

Other documents to follow weekly, include … General betting with the ratings, form reading, statistics, jockeys, trainers and owners.