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RATINGS GENERAL EXPLANATION AND HELP
This document has been produced by towerform.co.uk. Full terms and conditions relating to all TowerForm services apply to this document. Please familiarise yourself with those terms and conditions before adapting any contents to your own betting.
Copyright exists solely with TowerForm and any possible future sales rights belong exclusively with TowerForm and any copies of this document can only be sold, lent or otherwise distributed, either in book form or electronically, with the express permission of John Clarke of TowerForm.
1: ABOUT THE RATINGS
Whatever others may try to tell you, ratings are only a general guide to the relative winning chances of a horse. Their real value is that they reduce the field to manageable numbers of possible winners. Armed with this information, you rarely waste form-reading time on no-hopers. Additionally, ratings point to the value bets - the horses apparently overpriced in the market that have an outstanding chance of either winning or at least placing at a big price. They also provide potential for forecast and permed tricast bets; and can also be used profitably for the placepot, the jackpot, and even the Channel 4 Tipster Competition. Used carefully, TowerForm Ratings will frequently offer such lucrative opportunities.
We are firm believers in encouraging people to come to their own conclusions about the information they are given. If someone is given too much information about a horse's chance, the odds are likely that the phrase "I could have backed that" will be repeated almost daily. We can give you dozens of reasons why any one of six horses can win a handicap. But if we did it would only confuse. We see no cause for adding further information to the ratings we publish. TowerForm does not provide multiple columns as others do. The reason is very simple. Every aspect of a horse's race form is factored in to a handicap rating. So subscribers don't have spend valuable time switching between screens or correlating different columns. We have done that before publishing our handicaps. All subscribers need to do is a small bit of form reading to finalise their bets. Take the ratings as they are, then act on instinct.
Before going into greater detail later about using the ratings to their best advantage, we must stress that if you don't fancy a highly rated horse, don't back it just because it is a highly rated horse. All you need to do to find winners among the ratings is use your own method of form reading, possibly using some of the procedures we will be touching on in later sections such as statistics, trainer form, jockey form, relationships between connections and jockey, and so on. Please remember and imbibe your mind with the fact that no amount of trend following or scientific jiggery-pokery will alter the fact that the best form reader and the best tipster is your good self. Let no-one dissuade you otherwise. You are just as good a form reader or tipster as any in the country. All you probably need to make that an inherent fact is discipline - if you haven't already got it, obviously. But get that discipline and you'll be laughing all the way home from the bookies. But, as said above, more on how best to use the ratings later.
One special note we will make about all your form reading is this: Write down your thoughts and reasoning while you are form reading. It is well known by all but the most arrogant that the mind is a fickle thing, easily distracted, and (are you listening Robert!) sometimes forgetful.
THE RATINGS
The ratings are updated daily and normally available online to subscribers before 9 pm on the night before racing - though frequently an hour or so earlier during the NH season.
Every horse in every race rated will have a handicap mark. Every subscriber can register to access the web version of the ratings. Also, we send subscribers a back up ratings list in an Excel spreadsheet format attached to subscriber's emails. Each race is rated in descending order - highest at the top, lowest at the bottom. This will allow subscribers to play about with the ratings and also make it much easier to spot trends. All results quoted will be for the top two rated handicap marks (incl joints) but in the vast majority of races, the winners will come from the top four rated handicap marks (inc joints)
2: HOW THE RATINGS ARE COMPILED
OVERALL FORM
This is simply form in the book, i.e. ability shown in previous runs. For horses with little or no form in the book (debutantes, maidens, NH Flat races, etc) we use a number of methods which include:
- A trainers past performance with such horses
- A trainers past performance in the type of race being handicapped
- A trainers past ability to improve horses in their first few runs
- A horse's breeding
- A horse's future entries
- An ear constantly listening and an eye constantly looking
RECENT FORM
These are the first questions we ask
- Is the horse progressing, regressing or simply not improving?
- Has the horse been running over the right distance at the right tracks on the right going?
- Have there been any significant market moves for a horse in recent runs?
- Has the horse drifted badly in recent runs?
- Were there any significant comments pre or post-race by connections?
SPEED PROFILING
The main problem with speed watching is that too many people take a speed figure or race time at face value. This is where all but the most adept speed watchers fall down. We take numerous aspects into account when assessing speed. It's all very well assuming that each track has its own standard times from which speed can be assessed but two horses with the apparent same speed (via speed figures) do not necessarily have an equal chance of winning. Apart from the fact that a horse could be running over the wrong distance or at the wrong track or on the wrong going, a horse's final speed figure can be affected in a number of other ways:
- It had a good/bad draw
- The pace of the race overall didn't suit the horse
- It was slowly away
- It got caught flat footed as the pace increased
- It ran too freely for a significant part of the race
- It got held up in its run at a vital time
There are many other aspects of racing that can affect a horse's final speed figure. And while we will always encourage people to consider such aspects, we factor time into our handicaps using much of the above.
FORM IN RELATION TO RACE RIVALS
This is exactly what it says on the tin. BUT: Collateral form is useless if taken literally. In fact all form is useless if taken literally. If it was as easy as that there wouldn't be any bookmaker limousines. But in compiling our handicaps we take into account two things:
- How has a horse run against any of its rivals
- Are there any form lines that connect other horses to its rivals
Can form turnarounds can be spotted hours before the off?
Horse A beats horse B by two lengths over todays distance at todays track on todays going in today's weather and they meet again today on the same terms. Easy isn't it? Horse A will beat horse B again. While we wait for those laughing to stop, let's just say read what we have said above.
FORECASTED OVERNIGHT GOING
We handicap every race with an eye to the ground conditions as forecast overnight. So the listings have this aspect automatically factored in. Overnight changes in going don't affect the handicap listings unless there is a significant grade change in conditions: i.e. from Firm to Soft, from Good to Heavy. So the handicaps we compile should be taken as is unless there is that dramatic grade change in the going.
TRACK SUITABILITY
This is one of the most important aspects of our handicapping. If the track don't suit, the horse won't win? Not exactly. But it is a fact of nature that a big gangly 2-Y-O won't take well to Chester's tight turning track. Course suitability can sometimes be a complicated factor. With seasoned horses past form makes it easier. With first and second season horses it can be more difficult. The main three things we look for are:
- The size and make up of the horse (Timeform and Raceform help here)
- A horse's style of running in its early races (held up, front runner etc)
- A horse's running action (Timeform and Raceform help here also)
There is little we can add to this because it is one aspect where opinions will certainly differ. But it is factored in to all our handicapping. To help you we have created a very simple spreadsheet which lists various factors for NH racetracks. You can download it here . If your virus checker asks if you want to open it, please click YES. It is quite safe and virus free
TIME OF YEAR
It is a curious fact of racing that many horses can only run their best when the atmosphere or climate suits them. There are spring/autumn horses, summer horses, July horses etc. We constantly check past form to see if there are any seasonal trends in a horse's past form. Anyone can check this easily by accessing a horse's form on the Racing Post website. It is an aspect that can become very important and is thus always factored into our handicapping.
3: CLASS AND TOWERFORM RATINGS
Class is a determining factor in many people's betting. Some specialise not only in distance but in the class of race being contested against the class of race contested in the past.
But be careful if you do this. The class of race a horse has been contesting from its current handicap mark should be looked at closely. For instance a horse running consistently 4th, 5th and 6th, for example, in class 4 races, may not be necessarily in as good form as a horse finishing in the same places in a class 5 race. In correctly framed races where the top weight is close to the upper official handicap rating, it's logical to assume the class 5 horse running in a class 5 race has been carrying much more weight than if it had been contesting a correctly framed class 4 race. As every racing follower knows, put enough weight on a horses back and it will not win. That is, we know, logically illogical. But it is an example of how putting blind faith in race classes can put you away from the correct horse to back. In the old handicap bands (why they were changed is anyone's guess) many class D races were in effect only class E races; ie; a class D race rated 0-80 had a class E 70 rated horse as top weight. So look at classes carefully.
To help you we have compiled a very general guide to Class as related to TowerForm ratings
This is a loose guide to the relative class of horse when viewing TowerForm Ratings:
FLAT
0-45 Poor
46-55 Moderate
56-65 Modest
66-75 Average
76-85 Good
86-95 Useful
96-110 Listed / Group 3
111+ Top Class
NH
0-85 Poor
86-95 Moderate
96-105 Modest
106-120 Average
121-135 Good
136-150 Useful
151-160 Listed / Grade 2 / 3
161+ Top Class
The groupings are, of course, massive generalisations as many can bridge the classes (especially in handicap where a 70 rated "average" horse can be elevated to an 85 or 90 rated good/useful horse by virtue of weight allotted).
4: TURF v ALL WEATHER (our rant)
What was it Shakespeare wrote? "'Tis like the howling of Irish wolves against the moon." This quote frequently comes to mind when we see some of the all-weather results. True, there are some profits to be had on the all weather - if you're careful. But the form is so erratic it is laughable sometimes. A horse gets beaten 25 lengths on Tuesday then wins in the same class by 7 lengths on a Friday and the old "kickback" excuse comes up and the stewards swallow it.
But don't get the impression we think All Weather racing is bent. It isn't (the rules may be, but that's another story) - at least no more so than on the turf. If we thought racing was bent we wouldn't bet the horses. Most of the above was very much tongue-in-cheek. We don't subscribe to the "corrupt" theory about all weather racing in general or Banded Racing in particular. What you have to remember about all weather racing is that it is in large part populated by average to poor jockeys riding for average to poor trainers on modest to extremely poor horses. Many may not accept this. But every discipline in every job on Earth has its good practitioners and its bad practitioners. Fortunately, things get classier (jockey/trainer-wise) from about mid February.
So, all weather racing should be treated differently form-wise to turf. There is no secret to winning on the polytrack or the Southwell beach. On the All-Weather it seems - though this is possibly untrue - that more gambles are landed than on turf. Sometimes there will be a couple or three gambles in one race and you can bet the teacher's apple that the commentator ends every other All-Weather race commentary with the words, "Gamble landed!" It is as though the commentators feel they need to say this to explain why a certain horse has won - which begs a number of questions. Unfortunately, while you and I work to find which gamble is best to bet (and are very happy when we're right) those words "Gamble landed!" continue to keep racing very much a minority sport (despite recent shoutings from the rooftop of various parts of racings fraternity) and a quickly depreciating gambling option. You and I know that racing is not as bent as people make out. It's just that on the all weather especially, the vast majority of the horses are so moderate they are incapable of running two races alike and are trained and ridden by practitioners who can be - at best - fairly competent and - at worst - below average. Therein lies one problem. Add to that the negative effects of racing rules, racing habits, racing tradition and the human factor and you have some of the reasons we dislike low level all weather racing. We'll leave that there for now but will offer our views later.
We very, very rarely bet at Southwell or in Banded races, and we keep all our all weather bets to a minimum. But, although we do bet all weather winners, we don't take the discipline seriously as a professional betting medium - though we know some do so very successfully. We can say that had all weather racing been the norm instead of turf, TowerForm would never have come into existence because we would never have got interested in racing. According to the harbingers of doom all weather racing is the future. We say harbingers of doom because we think it is no coincidence that the steady reduction of betting on horse racing has come during the time all weather racing has increased - and it is not because other sports have attracted one-time racing bettors - as the myopic will no doubt contest.
Now, if you have forgiven us our rant (right or wrong or logical or otherwise) let's move on.
5: WHEN TO BET
This is particular to the individual. Many cannot bet during the week and confine their betting to the weekend - much to the delight of bookmakers. Unfortunately, while Saturday racing is almost always the best class racing of the week, it is also the most competitive and the time of week when bookmakers start imagining which Caribbean island they'll be visiting next winter. But we restrict our Saturday bets to an absolute minimum.
Monday to Friday is by far the best time to bet. It is the time we make most of our profit. If you can only bet weekends because of job and family commitments you are losing out profit-wise. You are all probably like us in stating that family comes before everything and we certainly understand if this is the reason you can't bet midweek. But if it isn't family commitments that prevent you betting Monday to Friday, you are losing out on the most lucrative opportunities of the week. Because you may not have much time during the week for form study, we have begun including highlighted races which we hope helps you concentrate only on about four or five races a day. If this is too much to study you should concentrate on the highlighted non-handicap races. The win ratio of the top rated horse in these races is very high.
Also, something we've never quite understood is the claim that certain times of year are more favourable to punters than other times of year. Here, we're talking about the mystical months of June to August on the Flat and October/ November/December on the NH. If you are talking a horse's form habits as we mentioned above, then you have a case. But, taking the general punter friendly claims of the months mentioned above, if you look at the statistics for the theoretical form horses (favourites, second favourites) there isn't a significant statistical conclusion that some times of year are better to bet than others. If anyone can prove significance, we would certainly like to know about it. Until such a time we recommend you discard this old wives tale. It won't affect any profit you are capable of reaching.
6: HOW TO BET
Without question, for serious betting, singles is the only bet. But don't be lured into any special kind of staking system. Some take this route to minimise losses but it is often a route leading to a cul-de-sac. If your betting doesn't make a level stakes profit, no staking system (that we've seen) will turn that into a workable profit. Likewise, if your betting makes a consistent profit no staking system we've seen increases much the return on investment.
Leave the multiple betting for those times you have a couple of quid in your pocket and fancy a few pints with your mates. In our experience, no serious punter regularly bets multiples to make his profit except to put a short priced banker (as if) with a better priced horse to bump up the return.
Each way betting should be approached with thought. It's worth bearing in mind that one point each way on a placed horse at 20/1 (1/5 odds) gives the same return as two points to win on a 6/4 winner. We wouldn't discourage each way betting on a highly priced top 3 horse especially when they sometimes win at 22/1 and get placed at 66/1. But we would say that if you do want to use a multiple bet, betting a collection of highly rated, highly priced horses would be the best proposition. One of our past visitors when TowerForm was free (oh happy days….) won over £1, 000 with an each way multiple bet. We can't, of course, say you'll win that amount……. but you just might…….
NEXT...
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